With the current selling price of wind power at 7.8 cents / kWh, many argue that the breakeven point has not yet been reached. So how much wind power is reasonable?
Not confirmed high or low
Decision No. 37/2011 / QD-TTg of the Prime Minister stipulates that the electricity buyers are responsible for purchasing all electricity output from wind power projects with the electricity purchase price at the power delivery point of 1,614 VND / kWh (excluding value added tax, equivalent to 7.8 cents / kWh). Electricity purchase price is adjusted according to fluctuations of the exchange rate VND / USD.
"In my opinion, it is too early to confirm whether this number is high or low for a completely new industry in Vietnam" - Dr. Duong Duy Hoat, Senior Researcher, Advisor of the Institute of Energy Science , under the Vietnam Institute of Science and Technology has confirmed. Despite being a field with rich potentials, Vietnam lacks human resources, lacks practical experience, and moreover, technological equipment lines have to be completely imported.
Meanwhile, to be able to calculate a reasonable price for wind power depends on many factors, including technological factors. According to experts' calculations, if using European technology, the investment rate is 2,250 USD / kWh, the average minimum electricity price is 10.68 cents / kWh. As for Chinese equipment, the investment rate is also 1,700 USD / kWh, equivalent to the selling price of electricity of 8.6 cents / kWh. This selling price is calculated for the payback period lasting nearly 20 years, the depreciation period of the equipment is 12 years. Thus, if the electricity price for the system is accepted at 7.8 cents / kWh, the remaining gap for investors to balance costs is between 0.9 - 3 cents / kWh. .
In addition to the price support, there are also a number of other supports such as exemption from land use levy, import tax, environmental protection fee, value added tax reduction and corporate income tax ...
How much is reasonable?
"Most investors believe that 1 kWh of wind power must be sold at 10-11 cents, or even 13-14 cents, to make profits", added Dr. Duong Duy Hoat. However, to have that price, the Government must have a very specific calculation. Vietnam has the first 30 MW wind power plant in Tuy Phong - Binh Thuan. On the basis of monitoring and analyzing economic - technical indicators of the factory, there will be a solution to this specific problem. In the future, Vietnam will aim to develop wind farms on the sea. Therefore, it is also very necessary to set a specific price for wind power on land, at sea, lowland, highland ....
Currently, a number of countries around the world have applied FIT selling price for wind power. FIT (feed-in-tariff) is the selling price applied to electricity produced from renewable energy sources. The FIT Law stipulates three important things: It is imperative that electricity transmission companies and traders buy electricity from any renewable energy source; Power purchase contracts are signed for a long term (usually from 15 to 25 years); Regulate specific electricity purchase price for each different technology (wind, solar, biomass ...) to ensure that investors are profitable.
Based on the experience of other countries, Vietnam can offer a price suitable to its economic and social conditions. FIT electricity price may vary depending on project scale, installation location with different average annual wind speed m / s. In addition, with each technology, the selling price also varies with the project's capacity level, with low capacity, the price will be high. In addition, the FIT price also changes every 3-4 years. In the first years, the FIT price will be higher than the following years. This aims to motivate renewable energy producers to develop technologies, reduce costs, and gradually bring renewable energy closer to the market price of other fossil fuels. again.
The Government also needs to soon issue a renewable energy development mechanism, in which there is a clear pricing mechanism for each type of energy, or can develop a RE law, introduce a price mechanism into the law like in Germany. did.
Development of wind power according to Power Master Plan VII: Electricity produced from wind power accounts for the proportion from 0.7% in 2020 to 2.4% by 2030, specifically:
* By 2020: the whole country will have 1,000 MW of wind power capacity
* By 2030, it will be 6,200 MW of wind power capacity
Vietnam's wind energy potential:
* Approximately 513,360 MW (According to the International Energy Commission (IEA) and World Bank (WB)).
* According to the World Bank's "Southeast Asia Wind Energy Map", Vietnam is the country with the largest wind energy potential, with more than 39% of Vietnam's territory having wind speeds greater than 6m / s at 65m high, equivalent to 513 / GW of capacity. In particular, more than 8% of the territory is assessed as having very good wind energy potential, with a potential capacity of about 112 / GW.
Investment rate for wind power: Ranging from 1,700 - 2,000 USD / kW (depending on technology)